Market News

As of the 11:30 midday break (HKT), Chinese chemical futures sold off across the board: PP January and L January hit limit-down within the first fifteen minutes and stayed locked into the break, EB and BR fell in a straight line, and SC extended its catch-up decline. Rubber was the only product to hold, edging higher. Crude's screen losses have narrowed to under 1.5%, as shown below.

判据成立: PP has been locked limit-down since 09:02 and L since 09:14, with no reopening before 11:30; EB and BR spent all 135 minutes of the morning beyond their escalation thresholds and never returned inside, running 1.88%-4.46% past their 08:10 marks, far beyond the 0.3% / three-minute floor. SC is borderline: 2.34% below its 08:10 mark, with all three baselines same-signed - -8.13% against the session open of 668.0 and -9.24% against the 4 November settlement of 676.2 - so this is neither a gap nor a false breach. The last alert on this basis was the 08:10 missive covering the night session; this round reports a new day-session leg, not a double count.

原因与供需: The driver remains the post-election ceasefire trade: Vice-President Vance blamed the defeat on the Iran war, Schumer and Jeffries said they will push to end it, and Tehran called that reading badly mistaken. Supply produced the first flow-level evidence of this episode: Vortexa puts October throughput of crude and refined products through Hormuz at 17.1 million b/d, below 18.9 million in September but back to roughly 75% of the pre-war level. Domestic futures closed at 15:00 on 4 November, before crude collapsed at 21:37 that evening, so today is a catch-up session; crude is down more than 17% this week.

Spot has started to follow, but far more slowly: styrene monomer in East China at 11,015 (-460), benzene 9,240 (-510), PP raffia 11,450 (-250) and BR 17,050 (-300). The basis has widened sharply - the paper market has already priced the whole crude retracement. Styrene stocks at Jiangsu ports rose to 30,700 tonnes, undercutting the destocking case.

方向: Crude down, supply loose (restored Strait throughput is the main evidence); chemicals down, supply balanced to loose. The decline should run further over one to three sessions, but a -6% day has front-loaded part of the move and rebound risk is rising. A formal Iranian refusal to negotiate, or renewed weakness in Strait throughput, would extend it.

采购与报价: Do not chase the fall; price discovery first, and futures losses must not be translated into spot cuts - spot is lagging the board. Re-take valid factory and trader offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity, available volume and lead time. Split confirmed orders and safety-stock gaps into tranches instead of stopping outright; review non-essential restocking. Shorten customer quote validity and keep a review clause. Next escalation: SC 601.43, PP 9353.12, L 8661.24, EB 9047.36, BR 14984.20. Release requires two comparable points back inside the -2% band of the 4 November settlement.

待确认: The table shows 11:30 frozen prices, not fresh trades; 13:30 is the next comparable point, and the 15:00 close will be a closing price, not a settlement. All eight East Money items returned HTTP 502 for a fourth consecutive round and are recorded as missing values, not zero. Hormuz throughput is a Vortexa estimate, not official flow data, and whether Tehran has formally responded on talks is unconfirmed.

SUNTA Market Intelligence Department