Market News

As of 09:02 HKT, Brent January 2027 was at 98.98 (session high 99.64) and WTI December 2026 at 91.02, with SC December 2026 at 641.4. The 5 November settlements of 98.29 and 90.52 were up 3.88% and 2.72% from the 4 November levels of 94.62 and 88.12, recovering close to half of the prior day's 8.67% / 8.29% collapse.

判据成立: Brent held above its 96.8019 effective reversal threshold for 343 consecutive minutes, 01:05-06:59, peaking at 99.54 at 06:18 (3.14% through the line). All 114 minutes of WTI's session sat above 90.152, peaking at 91.464 (1.76%), and SC held above 627.85 for 332 straight minutes, 21:01-09:02 (2.64%). All three clear the 0.3% / three-minute floor by a wide margin and none is borderline or gap-driven. The last alert on this basis was the downside alert of 08:10 on 5 November; this is the first breach of a new line after the reversal.

原因与供需: A Hormuz risk premium is rebuilding. The Revolutionary Guard said two tankers and a tug caught fire after using unauthorised routes; UKMTO reported a tanker north of Qatar hit by two unidentified projectiles, taking the month-to-date count to at least five. Saudi Arabia warned of danger at its Yanbu export hub, the Houthis claimed a drone strike on Dammam airport (unconfirmed by Riyadh), and Ukraine hit Russia's Ryazan refinery again. Only one of three hard proofs is in place, so this is a repricing of the premium, not a supply loss.

The structure confirms it: the Brent January-February spread widened from 2.40 to 3.75, USD 1.35 in a day, past the USD 0.5 threshold and pointing to a tighter front month - more than short covering. Spot went the other way: PP raffia 11,550 (-1.28), LLDPE 10,350 (-0.56), styrene monomer 10,280 (-5.81) and benzene 8,870 (-4.66). Costs rose while products fell.

方向: Crude is reclassified from down to range-bound with an upward bias (a directional reversal, stated separately), with supply loose. Polyolefins and the styrene chain are range-bound to weak with supply tight; rubber is range-bound to weak. One-to-three session probabilities: 45/35/20, 30/40/30, 30/40/30 and 25/40/35. Model estimates, not a guarantee. A ceasefire text plus verified reopening would deflate the premium; disrupted loadings at Yanbu or in the Strait would open the way to 105.

采购与报价: Chase neither the rally nor the sell-off, and do not read a futures rebound as a case for higher spot prices. Re-take valid factory and trader offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity, volume and lead time. Split confirmed orders and safety-stock gaps into tranches; with polyolefin and styrene spot still falling, lock near-month volumes for firm needs but refuse price-increase letters. Shorten customer quote validity and keep a review clause. Next escalation: 100.26 / 92.33 / 651.17. Release requires two comparable points back below 96.51 / 89.88 / 625.97.

待确认: All eight East Money items returned HTTP 502 for a sixth consecutive round and are recorded as missing values, not zero. Brent did not trade between 07:00 and 09:00; the 09:00 reopening print of 98.87 was below the 5 November close of 99.344, a vacuum-window gap excluded from the change. The Yanbu notice is a warning, not a shutdown; the Dammam strike is unconfirmed by Riyadh; settlements follow Reuters and the daily-K settlement field.

SUNTA Market Intelligence Department