Market News

At the 15:00 close (closing prices, not settlements), styrene EB2612 finished at 8,952 and LLDPE L2701 at 8,584, both breaking the escalation lines in place since the 5 November alert, at 9,047.36 and 8,661.24. Against the alert marks of 9,232 and 8,838 they are down a further 3.03% and 2.87%, past the 2% threshold, and 1.61% and 1.22% below the 12:00 readings - a fresh afternoon leg, not a repeat of the morning.

Benzene BZ2612 closed at 7,722 (-3.25%), confirming the move from the feedstock side; PP2701 closed at 9,341 (-1.63%), at its low of the day and 0.19% short of its own escalation line; SC at 631.0 and butadiene rubber at 15,750 stayed inside their bands.

判据成立: EB held below its 9,020.22 effective threshold for 89 consecutive minutes from 13:32, bottoming at 8,899 at 14:23 (1.34% through the line) and closing 0.76% below it. L broke at 13:52 and stayed below 8,635.26 for 47 straight minutes, 14:14-15:00, closing at its low of 8,584 (0.59% through). Three bases: EB is -3.43% against the 6 November settlement, -2.33% against today's open and -1.61% against the 12:00 reading; L is -2.03%, -1.62% and -1.22%. L's settlement basis is borderline, so the call rests instead on the 47 minutes below the escalation line plus -2.87% against the alert mark, not on a baseline gap. On duplication: the last chemical alert on this basis was 12:00 on 5 November, and the 09:17-09:54 stretch was already logged as a breach that reverted; this one is new, after 13:52.

原因与供需: Crude dropped in the afternoon, Brent printing 96.333 at 15:39 and trading 96.91 at 16:01 (-1.43%), after Trump said a US-Iran deal was close. The January-February spread narrowed only 0.034 dollars to 2.602, so the structure has not flipped. EB's own supply loosened more directly: weekly output up 1.13% after Zhejiang Petrochemical's 600,000 t/y restart, with Dagu's 500,000 t/y and Shell's 700,000 t/y due back mid-month, East China port stocks up 24.29% and Sinopec East China cutting ex-works styrene by 300 yuan to 9,800. For L, restarted units and higher rates lifted producer stocks 7.29% to 441,400 tonnes, while agricultural-film orders wound down.

方向: The chemical chain is trending lower with supply loose; styrene is weaker than polyolefins, which track crude. Over one to three sessions both look range-bound to weak (40/35/25 and 35/40/25, model estimates). A turn needs EB port stocks to draw or crude back above USD 98.

采购与报价: Re-take valid factory and trader offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity and volume, and negotiate in tranches. Do not translate the futures fall into a spot cut: the PP basis is still above 1,700 yuan and EB's ex-works premium to futures is around 848 yuan. Next escalation: EB 8,772.96 and L 8,412.32; release needs two comparable points back above 9,600.08 and 9,213.96.

待确认: The 9 November settlements are published tonight; all figures here are closes, not settlements. Sinopec East China's cut is a single producer's move and needs a second to follow. Three of eight East Money items were readable, five recorded as missing values, not zero. Murban physical sits about USD 1.70 above Brent, so the futures-physical divergence bears watching.

SUNTA Market Intelligence Department