Market News

At 09:23 HKT, Brent Jan27 was 92.207, WTI Dec26 86.350, SC Dec26 603.4 and PP Jan27 9142 (see table). The 9 November official settlements were 92.57 and 86.85, down 5.85% and 4.38% from 98.32 and 90.83 on 6 November (Xinhua basis, consistent with the hf_ prior-settlement field); since the 09:00 reopening the intraday move is only down only 0.39% and 0.58%, so the drop was completed overnight.

判据成立: Four instruments qualify at once: three reversals and one re-escalation. Brent's 9 November settlement of 92.57 already sat 3.90% below its 96.324 reversal line, and all 11 minutes since the open remain below it, with the last price at 92.207 and a 4.27% breach. WTI held 129 minutes below 88.71, bottoming at 86.110 for 2.66%. SC held 351 consecutive minutes, 21:01 to 09:21, below 625.632, bottoming at 601.0 for 3.55%. PP sat 141 minutes below its 9,325.06 effective threshold, 2.26% through the 9,353.12 escalation line. All clear the 0.3% / three-minute floor by a wide margin and none is borderline or gap-driven. The last alert on this basis was the 09:04 upside alert of 6 November (98.29 / 90.52 / 638.4 / 9,544); these are first breaches of new lines after the reversal plus a fresh down leg in PP, and do not double count the styrene and LLDPE marks set at 16:00 on 9 November.

原因与供需: Washington and Tehran have moved from confrontation to conditional talks, and the Iran premium is unwinding at once. After meeting Qatar's prime minister on 9 November, President Trump said military action "seems unnecessary" and the war is "effectively over"; Saudi media reported that the US accepts Iranian enrichment capped at 3.67%, that Iran accepts, and that IAEA inspectors are being scheduled to return, with Brent falling nearly 8% intraday at one point. Yet only 0 of 3 hard proofs exist: the blockade and Operation Iron Gate continue, Hormuz stays "closed to Iran", the Strait has not reopened and there is no loading data or force-majeure notice - what is priced is the expectation of an ending war, not supply that has returned. The Brent Jan-Feb spread narrowed from 2.602 to 2.170, 0.43 dollar and under the 0.5 threshold: easing front-month tightness, not a collapse into contango.

方向: Crude is reclassified lower from range-bound with supply loose; polyolefins and the styrene chain are lower with supply loose; rubber is range-bound with supply tight. One-to-three session probabilities: 60/28/12, 55/30/15, 55/30/15, 30/45/25. Model estimates, not a guarantee. A signed text would take another leg down; a breakdown in talks or an escalation of the blockade would restore the premium quickly.

采购与报价: What is falling is the expectation, not the cargo in hand, so do not translate a futures decline into a spot discount. On 9 November the only spot move was Sinopec East China cutting styrene by 300 to 9,800 (a single seller); PP, PE and butadiene rubber lists had not printed, and the first 10 November lists are the real signal. Re-take valid offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity and available volume; split firm needs into tranches and lock near-month volume, refuse one-off cuts benchmarked to the screen, and shorten customer quote validity. Next escalation: 90.36 / 84.62 / 591.33 / 8,959.16; release needs two comparable points back above 94.05 / 88.08 / 615.47.

待确认: Only 3 of 8 East Money fixed-month items were readable (L 8,407, PP 9,125, EB 8,743; CL00Y, RU and BR continuous returned data=null) and are recorded as missing values, not zero, with Sina the primary source for all tests. Brent did not trade in the 07:00-09:00 vacuum, so the gap between the 09:00 opening print of 92.45 and the prior close is excluded. The SunSirs spot table was unreadable and spot is carried as a missing value, not extrapolated. EB at 8,756 is only 0.11% above its 8,746.65 threshold and spent three minutes below it; L is 0.44% above 8,387.08. Both are registered only, not confirmed.

SUNTA Market Intelligence Department