Market News

China's day session closed at 11:30 HKT and reopens at 13:30; the table shows the 11:30 frozen prints, not fresh trades. LLDPE L Jan27 and styrene EB Dec26 have both slipped back below their escalation lines against the 16:00 marks of 9 November, the only new trigger since this morning's 09:23 alert.

判据成立: Both are measured against the last alert mark and clear the 2% re-escalation requirement by a margin that is not borderline, so no three-basis cross-check applies. L held 49 consecutive minutes below its 8,387.08 effective threshold from 10:42 to 11:30, bottoming at 8,337 (0.60% through); EB has held 111 consecutive minutes below 8,746.65 from 09:25, bottoming at 8,684 (0.72%), and at 11:30 was still 0.53% and 0.35% beyond, not back inside the band. Against the 08:00 round prints the two added 0.96% and 0.46% in this window: a fresh leg, not a re-count. EB touched its threshold for only three minutes at 09:19-09:21 and was correctly judged a swing; it turned sustained from 09:25, so the same level may be judged a second time intraday. The last alert on this basis was today's 09:23 email, which did not include L or EB.

原因与供需: The cost floor is still collapsing and this is not a plant event. President Trump said on 9 November that a strike on Iran is "highly unlikely" and held off a new attack; US and Iranian negotiators were reported to have moved on enrichment; Hormuz exports recovered to 10.3 million bpd in October, OPEC output rose 1.38 million bpd to 22.87 million bpd, and Saudi Aramco cut its December Arab Light OSP to Asia by 2 dollars. Supply is returning faster than refining capacity, and the chemical decline is a lagged pass-through of the crude move, with no fresh output cut or offer withdrawal behind it.

方向: LLDPE and styrene are lower with supply loose; polypropylene runs the same way and is loose; crude is range-bound to soft. One-to-three session probabilities for L and EB: 58/27/15 and 57/28/15. Model estimates, not a guarantee. All coastal MTO units stay shut, which removes the left tail of the cost curve and puts a floor under the market without driving it higher, while restarts and new capacity in mid-to-late November still cap the upside.

采购与报价: What is falling is the screen and the expectation, so do not translate a futures decline into a spot discount. Re-take valid plant and trader offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity, available volume and lead time; split firm requirements into tranches, lock near-month volume, and refuse one-sided cuts benchmarked to the screen. Next escalation: L 8,412.32 (effective 8,387.08) and EB 8,772.96 (effective 8,746.65); release needs two comparable points back above 8,755.7 and 9,131.0.

待确认: Only 3 of 8 East Money items were readable (CL00Y, RU and BR continuous); the L, PP and EB continuous contracts and the EB and PP fixed months returned data=null and are recorded as missing values, not zero. Whether the 13:30 reopen extends the fall, whether a second producer follows on spot this afternoon (a single 200 yuan cut is registered only), and the benchmark switch after tonight's settlement all remain open; the SunSirs spot table was unreadable.

SUNTA Market Intelligence Department