2026-11-10
| Instrument / Contract | 15:00 close | Last alert | vs alert | vs 12:00 | Prev settle | vs settle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP Jan27 (CNY/t) | 8,912 | 9,142 | -2.52% | -1.83% | 9,461 | -5.80% |
| Benzene Dec26 (CNY/t) | 7,359 | no alert | - | - | 7,828 | -5.99% |
| EB Dec26 (CNY/t) | 8,654 | 8,716 | -0.71% | -0.71% | 9,075 | -4.64% |
| L Jan27 (CNY/t) | 8,276 | 8,343 | -0.80% | -0.80% | 8,671 | -4.56% |
| SC Dec26 (CNY/bbl) | 597.2 | 603.4 | -1.03% | -1.06% | 637.6 | -6.34% |
| BR Dec26 (CNY/t) | 15,020 | 15,290 | -1.77% | -2.53% | 15,745 | -4.60% |
| Brent Jan27 (USD/bbl) | 90.848 | 92.207 | -1.47% | -0.94% | 92.570 | -1.86% |
| WTI Dec26 (USD/bbl) | 85.176 | 86.35 | -1.36% | -0.82% | 86.850 | -1.93% |
| RU Jan27 (CNY/t) | 18,800 | no alert | - | -0.21% | 18,670 | +0.70% |
China's day session closed at 15:00 HKT; the table shows closing prices, not settlement prices, which are published tonight. Polypropylene PP Jan27 broke below its escalation line this afternoon, the only new trigger since today's 12:00 email.
判据成立: The basis is the last alert mark: the decline clears 2% and sits beyond the 2.4% borderline band, so no three-basis cross-check applies. Measured against today's open of 9,155 the fall is slightly larger and occurred entirely within this session, with no overnight gap. PP broke 8,959.16 at 14:29 and held 30 consecutive minutes below the 8,932.28 effective threshold from 14:31 to 15:00, bottoming at 8,894 at 14:41 (0.73% through), and closed still outside the line, not back in the band. At 11:30 the contract printed 9,078 with zero minutes through the line; the whole leg came after 13:30, so it is not a re-count of the 12:00 round. The last PP alert on this basis was today's 09:23 email; this is a fresh value breach.
原因与供需: Benzene 2612 locked limit-down this afternoon and pulled styrene, LLDPE and PP into a second slide: a joint repricing of cost and sentiment, with no new plant shutdown, maintenance or offer withdrawal. Crude fell only 1.86% against 4.6-5.8% in chemicals, so what is being compressed is processing margin, not supply. With all coastal MTO units shut, the left tail of the PP cost curve is already gone; this move is the screen repricing benzene and crude rather than supply loosening.
方向: PP, LLDPE and styrene are lower with supply loose; benzene runs the same way; crude is range-bound to soft. One-to-three session PP probabilities: 60% down, 25% range, 15% up. Model estimates, not a guarantee. Restarts and new capacity in mid-to-late November still cap the upside, and the MTO shutdowns put a floor under the market without driving it higher.
采购与报价: A falling screen does not license an equivalent spot discount, so do not translate a futures decline into a spot price cut. Re-take valid plant and trader offers on the same grade, tax basis, delivery and payment terms, logging validity, available volume and lead time. With PP close to limit-down, confirm each seller's willingness to discount and the volume actually deliverable; split firm requirements into tranches rather than chasing the fall or pre-booking far months. Next escalation: 8,733.76 (effective 8,707.55); release needs two comparable points back above 9,089.24.
待确认: LLDPE's low of 8,178 and styrene's low of 8,549 sat just 2 and 7 points above their escalation lines of 8,176.14 and 8,541.68, near misses that never broke, and whether the next session finishes the job is open. SC's gap against the previous settlement is about 3.8 percentage points and is shown separately from the intraday move; do not mix the two. Settlement for 10 November is due tonight and must not be replaced by the close. Five of eight East Money items were readable; CL00Y and the RU and BR continuous contracts returned data=null and are recorded as missing values, not zero. The SunSirs spot table was unreadable, and producer list prices were mixed by region today with no second seller following, so that layer is registered only.
SUNTA Market Intelligence Department
