2026-11-02
Data updated to 2 November 2026, 07:35 HKT
Today's market view: Energy prices retreated from the weekend highs, with the cost push shifting from a sharp rally to high-level consolidation. The divergence among monomers is narrowing: propylene and butadiene remain firm while styrene has turned weaker, leaving the resin cost base firm at the top and softer at the bottom. Spot moves have shifted from divergence to a synchronised upward drift, with ABS, PP and PS offers in South China all moving higher, though trading is still dominated by small, need-based orders. Over the next one to three days, the key watch points are whether monomers can hold current levels and whether South China volumes can pick up at higher prices.
The following are the latest oil prices as of 07:16 HKT on 2 November 2026; changes are measured against the official settlement of the same contract month on the previous trading day.
| Grade | Latest Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Dec 2026 | USD112.19/bbl | -5.45 (-4.63%) |
| WTI Dec 2026 | USD102.34/bbl | -1.78 (-1.71%) |
Previous trading day's official settlement: Brent 117.64, WTI 104.12 USD/bbl.
Oil has retraced clearly from Friday's sharp spike. The market's extreme pricing of a Middle East supply disruption has cooled rapidly: US-Iran talks mediated by a third party have made interim progress and negotiators have returned to Tehran, quickly squeezing out the geopolitical premium that had built up.
Support remains underneath: producers decided to keep December output quotas unchanged, so supply adds no further pressure, while inventories in major consuming countries continue to fall. The drag comes from demand: October manufacturing activity slipped below the 50 threshold, and high prices are starting to curb end-user consumption. Near term, oil may oscillate within a high range, with direction still driven by the progress of negotiations.
The following are upstream monomer market reference prices and estimated theoretical resin costs; RMB and USD are priced independently and are for directional reference only.
| Grade | RMB | USD | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM | 11,220 yuan/tonne | USD1,417/tonne | East China spot and ex-works prices cut in tandem, the only one of the four monomers to weaken; Asian market holds firm, support intact |
| BD | 14,400 yuan/tonne | USD1,820/tonne | Rubber chain firming in step, rubber-content cost rising, discount room for ABS and HIPS has disappeared |
| AN | 12,200 yuan/tonne | USD1,610/tonne | East China delivered and list prices raised in tandem, supply recovery slower than expected, all three ABS monomers up |
| C3 | 12,001 yuan/tonne | USD1,380/tonne | Up more than 13% on the week, the strongest cost push for PP; import window narrow |
| ABS | 13,913 yuan/tonne | USD1,824/tonne | All three monomers up, lifting theoretical cost close to South China spot; the case for holding prices is solid |
| GPPS | 12,108 yuan/tonne | USD1,533/tonne | Falling styrene pulls cost lower, the lightest cost pressure of the four grades |
| HIPS | 12,674 yuan/tonne | USD1,621/tonne | Strong butadiene and weak styrene offset each other; cost remains the highest of the four grades |
| PP | 12,921 yuan/tonne | USD1,534/tonne | Surging propylene lifts cost above South China raffia spot; producer margins under pressure |
Note: SM, BD, AN and C3 are market reference prices in the respective currency; the RMB and USD figures for ABS, GPPS, HIPS and PP are independent theoretical cost estimates, calculated under the feedstock system of the respective currency, with no FX conversion. Theoretical costs are for directional reference only and do not represent actual transacted prices or official quotations.
| Grade | Price direction | Supply situation | Watch over the next 1-3 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABS | Steady to firm | Regional supply somewhat tighter | Rising costs across all three monomers provide a floor while weak appliance demand caps gains; watch producer list prices |
| GPPS | Stable | Supply steady, some grades arriving slowly | Falling styrene weakens follow-through buying, stability to prevail; watch the spread to HIPS |
| HIPS | Steady to firm | Some grades tight | Butadiene supports rubber cost, gains exceed GPPS; watch the spread between high-end and low-end grades |
| PP | Steady to firm | Some South China plants under maintenance, deliverable volumes tight | Propylene plus low operating rates, the strongest near term; watch high South China inventories and whether volumes confirm higher prices |
| PE | Stable | Supply normal, watch arrival pace | Tracking crude and naphtha pass-through, no strong direction, high inventories cap gains |
| Transparent ABS | Steady to firm | Specialty grades concentrated, limited deliverable volumes | Firming with general-purpose ABS, but acceptance of high prices is low, trading mostly need-based |
Note: “Price direction” is a directional view for the next 1-3 days and does not represent specific prices; “Supply situation” reflects deliverable cargoes and lead times.
· Shipping lane throughput not restored: commercial vessel transit through key straits is still affected by security incidents, and schedules are hard to keep as planned.
· War-risk premiums and freight stay elevated: insurance and tanker freight on the Middle East-Asia route have not eased, so landed import costs adjust downward with a lag.
· Regional supply tightening in phases: some South China plants are under maintenance, and spot availability depends on inter-regional transfers.
· Slower arrivals for some grades: specialty and high-end grades must be scheduled in batches, with actual delivery dates later than nominal lead times.
· Concentrated import arrivals: container pickup and customs clearance will be tight in early November, so plan ahead.
1. Cost direction is diverging; we suggest buying in batches in line with production schedules, locking in near-term volumes first and avoiding one-off commitments for distant months.
2. Confirm quotation validity before ordering. Intraday monomer volatility has increased, so it is advisable to confirm the execution period and price-adjustment mechanism in writing.
3. Actual delivery dates matter more than nominal prices. Some grades have long scheduling cycles; please plan production around deliverable volumes.
4. PP and PS are diverging; where physical properties allow, grade substitution can be evaluated to reduce dependence on a single grade.
5. Container pickup and customs clearance will be tight; we suggest booking in advance and confirming deliverable volumes to avoid disruption to production.
| Market may strengthen | Market may weaken further |
|---|---|
| • If talks stall or security incidents in the shipping lanes recur, the energy premium rebuilds and lifts naphtha and styrene, hardening cost support again • If propylene holds current levels and PP ex-works prices keep rising with volumes confirming, the firm tone can spread to other grades • If butadiene and acrylonitrile keep rising while styrene stops falling, ABS and HIPS will be the first to open upside room | • If talks conclude and shipping lanes gradually reopen, the energy premium unwinds quickly and drags monomers lower in step, turning resin prices from rising to stable • If high-price volumes in South China keep shrinking and inventories turn to build, producer list prices face downward pressure • If maintenance plants restart in a cluster in November, regional supply turns from tight to loose and earlier gains may be given back |
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Disclaimer: This material is for market information reference only and does not constitute a quotation, an offer to buy or sell, or any commitment on price, volume, quality or shipping schedule. Actual transaction terms are subject to formal confirmation.
