2026-11-03
Data updated to 3 November 2026, 07:35 HKT
Today's market view: Energy prices have fallen sharply from yesterday's highs, with the cost push turning from one-way gains into a give-back and market sentiment visibly weaker. Monomer spot prices have not yet followed the decline in step: butadiene and acrylonitrile are rising against the trend, while the related domestic night-session contracts fell broadly, so cost support is loosening. Most resin spot offers were raised yesterday, and today is mainly about whether the decline is confirmed, with offer levels tending to be stable with a softer bias. Over the next one to three days, the key watch points are whether monomer spot prices can hold current levels and whether volumes pick up at higher prices.
Below are the latest oil prices as of 06:36 HKT on 3 November 2026; changes are measured against the previous trading day's official settlement for the same contract month.
| Grade | Latest Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Jan 2027 | USD104.29/bbl | -0.48 (-0.46%) |
| WTI Dec 2026 | USD96.26/bbl | -0.20 (-0.21%) |
Previous trading day's official settlement: Brent 104.77, WTI 96.46 USD/bbl.
Oil fell by more than 7% in a single day, the largest one-day drop since May, mainly because the geopolitical premium unwound quickly. One producer country proposed a two-day arrangement for reopening the shipping channel, and another key party also signalled goodwill on talks, so the market rapidly cooled its pricing of a military escalation and the risk premium accumulated earlier was squeezed out in a concentrated move.
There is still support underneath: major producers decided to keep output unchanged in December, so near-term supply additions will not return; global inventories are already clearly lower than before the conflict, and a pipeline from Kazakhstan to Russia briefly stopped pumping after a facility was attacked, so supply disruptions have not been fully removed. The offset comes from whether the channel can actually reopen; before both an agreement and transit are in place, oil may swing repeatedly within a high range.
Below are upstream monomer market reference prices and estimated theoretical resin costs. RMB and USD prices are taken independently and serve only as a directional guide.
| Grade | RMB | USD | Market Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM | 11,225 RMB/t | 1,417 USD/t | South China self-lift offers loosening from highs, night session down more than 4%; restart of a large plant delayed, limiting the decline |
| BD | 14,716.67 RMB/t | 1,845 USD/t | Strongest of the four monomers, spot still rising, gel-content cost higher, limiting discounts on ABS and HIPS |
| AN | 12,516.67 RMB/t | 1,610 USD/t | Largest single-day gain, ABS three-monomer cost still moving up, unlikely to follow crude lower in the near term |
| C3 | 11,575 RMB/t | 1,401 USD/t | South China and import cargoes still at highs, night session down more than 3%, PP cost push weakening at the margin |
| ABS | 14,033 RMB/t | 1,824 USD/t | All three monomers rising pushed costs higher, broadly level with tax-inclusive spot in South China, firm-price basis still intact |
| GPPS | 12,113 RMB/t | 1,533 USD/t | Styrene retreating from highs pulled costs lower, mildest pressure of the four grades |
| HIPS | 12,704 RMB/t | 1,621 USD/t | Strong butadiene and weak styrene offset each other, cost rigidity on the firm side |
| PP | 12,491 RMB/t | 1,555 USD/t | Cost above South China raffia spot, most direct pressure to follow prices down |
Note: for SM, BD, AN and C3, the figures are market reference prices in the respective currency; for ABS, GPPS, HIPS and PP, both the RMB and USD figures are independent estimates of theoretical cost, calculated under the respective currency's raw-material system without any FX conversion. Theoretical cost is for directional reference only and does not represent actual traded prices or official quotations.
| Grade | Price Direction | Supply Situation | Watch Points for the Next 1-3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABS | Stable with a soft bias | Regional supply somewhat tighter | Three-monomer cost still supportive, but buyers are turning to the sidelines; watch whether producers withdraw yesterday's increases |
| GPPS | Stable to lower | Supply steady, some grades arriving slowly | Cost support loosening, Shunde market offers already below theoretical cost, downward pressure emerging |
| HIPS | Stable with a soft bias | Some grades tight | High-priced grades correcting first while low-priced grades hold, spread versus GPPS may narrow |
| PP | Soft | Some South China plants under maintenance, deliverable volumes tight | Largest gains yesterday and also the biggest night-session pullback, highest correction risk |
| PE | Stable with a soft bias | Supply normal, watch the arrival pace | Following energy's give-back, inventories and arrival pace limit the downside, no strong direction |
| Transparent ABS | Stable with a soft bias | Specialised grades concentrated, limited deliverable volumes | Weakening with standard ABS, specialised grades less flexible, mainly need-based business |
Note: "Price Direction" is a directional view for the next 1-3 days and does not represent a specific price; "Supply Situation" reflects deliverable cargoes and lead times.
· Channel transit still not restored: the traffic-separation scheme in the key strait has not been confirmed safe for passage, commercial vessels remain restricted and schedules cannot be executed as planned.
· War-risk and freight costs stay high: insurance and tanker freight on the Middle East-to-Asia route have not been cut, so landed costs are slow to adjust lower.
· Energy cost pass-through lags: lower oil prices may not be reflected in cargoes in transit or in inventory, and import raw-material costs typically adjust with a one to two week lag.
· Regional supply tightened at this stage: some South China plants are under maintenance, regional supply has tightened and spot availability depends on transfers from outside the region.
· Some grades arriving slowly: specialised and high-end grades must be scheduled in batches, so actual lead times run later than nominal ones.
1. The cost direction has turned; buy in batches in line with production schedules, lock in near-term volumes first and avoid locking in distant months in one go.
2. Single-day oil price volatility has widened; before ordering, please confirm in writing the validity period of quotations and the price-adjustment mechanism.
3. Actual lead time matters more than nominal price. Scheduling for some grades is long, so please plan production around deliverable volumes.
4. Upstream monomers are diverging, and ABS and PS may adjust at a different pace; assess restocking timing grade by grade.
5. From mid-November, import cargoes and out-of-region transfers will arrive in a relatively concentrated window; book container collection and customs clearance in advance to avoid disrupting production schedules.
| Market may strengthen | Market may weaken further |
|---|---|
| • If the channel-opening arrangement falls through and regional security incidents recur, the energy premium would rebuild and lift naphtha and styrene, hardening cost support again • If butadiene and acrylonitrile keep rising and prompt ABS and HIPS producers to raise new offers with deals confirmed, firm pricing could spread to other grades • If domestic day-session futures open steady after the drop, sellers' willingness to discount would fade and this correction may be limited | • If the channel reopens, the energy premium would keep unwinding and pull monomers lower, turning resin offers from stable to declining • If butadiene traders sell at highs and spot loosens, cost support for ABS and HIPS would fail first • If South China volumes at high prices keep shrinking and inventories turn to a build-up, producers' list prices face downward pressure |
For any enquiries, please contact our sales representatives.
Disclaimer: This material is provided for market information only and does not constitute a quotation, an offer to buy or sell, or any commitment on price, volume, quality or shipping schedule. Actual transaction terms are subject to formal confirmation.
