2026-11-05
Data updated to 5 November 2026, 07:35 HKT
Today's market view: Compared with the previous trading session, the energy complex fell sharply in a one-way move, markedly easing cost pressure, yet transmission along the aromatics and olefins chains remains out of step. Styrene supply has recovered and main-port inventories have built up, pulling the aromatics-chain cost line down quickly; butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to hold firm, while propylene slipped only modestly, so cost support for hard resins and polypropylene has been released only in part. Resin spot markets sit in the middle stage of “costs having moved down first while offers have yet to catch up fully”, with traders' sentiment turning weaker and trade confined to small need-based orders. Over the next one to three days, watch whether the olefins chain catches up on the downside and how the PP futures-spot spread converges; together these will determine whether this round of adjustment remains a limited pullback or spreads into a broad-based catch-up decline.
The following are the latest crude oil prices as of 06:00 HKT on 5 November 2026, with changes measured against the official settlement of the same contract month on the previous trading session.
| Grade | Latest Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Jan 2027 | USD94.62/bbl | -8.98 (-8.67%) |
| WTI Dec 2026 | USD88.12/bbl | -7.97 (-8.29%) |
Previous trading session official settlements: Brent 103.60 and WTI 96.09 USD/bbl.
The main driver of this decline is the concentrated unwinding of geopolitical premium: the political trajectory of the regional conflict has produced tradeable changes, shifting the market from “supply-disruption pricing” back to “post-war surplus pricing”, with more than twenty dollars of premium squeezed out over three trading sessions and the largest single-day fall in nearly half a year. Forces limiting further downside are also present: global visible inventories are at low levels, tight refined product stocks are keeping refinery runs high, and the crude front-month structure has not yet flipped into deep backwardation; regional shipping and insurance costs remain far above normal, and tail risks of supply disruption have not been fully removed. The near term is more likely to see rangebound trading at low levels with amplified volatility than a one-way continuation.
The table below sets out the latest verifiable market reference prices and theoretical costs as of 07:35 HKT on 5 November 2026.
| Grade | RMB | USD | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM | 10,914 CNY/t | 1,350 USD/t | Overseas prices catching down and main-port inventory building; cost support weakening |
| BD | 14,933 CNY/t | 1,879 USD/t | The only grade edging higher against the trend; rubber-feed cost still not easing |
| AN | 13,000 CNY/t | 1,610 USD/t | East China port prices rising further; the firmest support for ABS |
| C3 | 11,494 CNY/t | 1,421 USD/t | Limited follow-through decline; PP cost slightly lower |
| ABS | 13,978 CNY/t | 1,823 USD/t | Styrene concessions offset by BD and AN; cost slightly lower |
| GPPS | 11,805 CNY/t | 1,524 USD/t | High styrene share; largest cost decline |
| HIPS | 12,437 CNY/t | 1,616 USD/t | Rubber feed at high levels; cost decline smaller than GPPS |
| PP | 12,409 CNY/t | 1,575 USD/t | Cost moving down with propylene; inverted versus spot |
Note: SM, BD, AN and C3 are market reference prices in the respective currency; the RMB and USD figures for ABS, GPPS, HIPS and PP are independent theoretical cost estimates, calculated separately under the feedstock system of the respective currency and not converted at exchange rates. Theoretical costs are for directional observation only and do not represent actual transaction prices or official offers.
| Grade | Price Direction | Supply | Watch Points for the Next 1-3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABS | Steady to soft | Regional supply steady | High-end discounts continue while low-end offers are raised to clear stock, capping downside for the price centre; whether volumes can expand is the key |
| GPPS | Steady to soft | Supply loosening | Cost decline exceeds offer decline, concentrating catch-up pressure; if styrene weakens further, low-end grades will fall faster |
| HIPS | Steady | Some grades tight | Rubber-feed firmness offsets output cuts on some lines, more resilient than GPPS; watch spread convergence |
| PP | Steady to soft | Supply tight | Futures falling more than spot leaves basis high; spot has support until maintenance units restart |
| PE | Steady to soft | Supply ample | Tracking energy and olefins cost swings; watch new capacity and arrival pace |
| Clear ABS | Steady | Specialty grades tight | Moves in step with general-purpose ABS but with less elasticity; confirm available volumes and lead times batch by batch |
Note: “Price Direction” is a directional view for the next one to three days and does not represent a specific price; “Supply” reflects deliverable cargo availability and lead times.
· Shipping routes not yet normalised: strait throughput remains below pre-conflict levels, some commercial vessels have secured transit arrangements, and a full resumption of sailings is still unconfirmed.
· Freight and insurance remain hard costs: energy shipping and insurance costs have risen several-fold from the start of the year, and lower oil prices will not immediately reduce landed costs.
· Imported material falling more slowly than the board: landed costs of imported resin are slow to decline, the domestic-overseas spread is converging slowly, and the import window remains constrained.
· Periodic tightening of regional supply: some South China plants are under maintenance, arrivals of certain grades are slow, and available volumes and lead times vary.
· Tight logistics windows: shipping schedules and port operations tighten around month-end; allow buffer for container pickup, customs clearance and inland delivery.
1. The cost side has shifted from a one-way decline to divergence; quotation validity should be shortened to three to five working days, with available volumes clearly stated.
2. Need-based buying should be staged in line with production schedules; before spreads converge, it is not advisable to lock in the full volume at once.
3. Hard resin adjustments are unevenly paced; ABS and PS should be quoted separately, while styrene-based grades can be assessed for volume after a second cost confirmation.
4. Lead times are tight for some grades; confirm shipping schedules and available volumes before ordering, and allow buffer for arrival and customs clearance.
5. For modified and specialty grades, advise monthly volumes in advance so that supply and scheduling can be coordinated.
| Market May Strengthen | Market May Weaken Further |
|---|---|
| • If the regional situation turns again and shipping routes are blocked once more, with energy prices and freight jumping together, cost support may strengthen again • If butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to hold firm while propylene stops falling, the cost floor for hard resins and polypropylene will be reconfirmed • If downstream restocking exceeds the seasonal pace and producers raise new offers with volumes confirmed, the price centre may stop falling and recover | • If oil prices break below previous lows and drag naphtha and styrene down in step, cost support may weaken markedly • If styrene plants restart in clusters and main-port inventories keep rising, the catch-up decline may spread from PS to ABS • If the PP futures-spot spread converges through spot declines, the spot follow-through may exceed expectations |
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Disclaimer: This material is provided for market information reference only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to buy or sell, or any commitment on price, volume, quality or shipping schedules. Actual transaction terms are subject to formal confirmation.
