2026-11-10
Data updated to 10 November 2026, 07:35 HKT
Today's market view:Energy prices extended the previous day's weakness and deepened the cost drag: styrene ex-works in East China fell below the RMB 10,000 mark, and theoretical resin costs moved lower in tandem on the day, yet the decline in spot prices was clearly smaller than the fall in costs, so the downward shift in the price centre remains slow. Supply is structurally split: some ABS grades are holding firm as controlled volumes and low-priced cargo tighten, while other products are prioritising volume at the expense of price. Over the next one to three days, the key points to watch are whether monomer costs can stop falling and whether cargo supply returns faster once idled plants restart.
The following are the latest crude oil prices as of 03:46 HKT on 10 November 2026. Changes are measured against the official settlement price for the same contract month on the previous trading day.
| Grade | Latest price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Jan 2027 | USD 91.33/bbl | -1.24 (-1.34%) |
| WTI Dec 2026 | USD 85.63/bbl | -1.22 (-1.41%) |
Previous trading day (9 November) official settlement: Brent 92.57, WTI 86.85 USD/bbl.
Crude oil fell for a third consecutive trading day. The core driver was a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium: the United States and Iran restarted nuclear talks and made progress on a cap for uranium enrichment levels, while the US side also played down the possibility of further military strikes, so the market pre-empted the supply-disruption risk. At the same time, OPEC and its production-cutting partners kept output unchanged and Middle East exports recovered, pointing to looser conditions on both the supply and demand sides. Forces capping the decline remain: passage through key Gulf shipping lanes has not fully normalised, tanker freight and war-risk insurance remain elevated, and seasonal demand from summer travel and winter heating has not visibly weakened, so the near term is more likely to be a low-level range trade than a one-way slide.
The following are verifiable two-market reference prices and theoretical costs for 9 November 2026. The RMB and USD figures are independent of each other and no exchange-rate conversion is applied.
| Grade | RMB | USD | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM | RMB 9,810/t | USD 1,235/t | Ex-works cut by a further RMB 300; port inventories building, cost support turning from tight to loose |
| BD | RMB 14,817/t | USD 1,839/t | Downstream restocking after restarts; up again on the day and the only firmer cost item |
| AN | RMB 12,800/t | USD 1,753/t | East China port spot; its own supply and demand are on the loose side, quotes flat and not tracking crude |
| C3 | RMB 11,584/t | USD 1,435/t | Diverging from crude; propane dehydrogenation losses prompt run cuts, supporting a small spot rise |
| ABS | RMB 13,202/t | USD 1,739/t | Combined cost of the three monomers fell on the day but remains above South China spot |
| GPPS | RMB 10,702/t | USD 1,353/t | High styrene share; largest cost decline and greatest pressure to follow prices down |
| HIPS | RMB 11,396/t | USD 1,453/t | Firm butadiene partly offsets the styrene decline; cost fall smaller than for GPPS |
| PP | RMB 12,500/t | USD 1,589/t | Propylene cost is rigid; remains clearly inverted to South China spot |
Note: SM, BD, AN and C3 are market reference prices in the respective currency. The RMB and USD figures for ABS, GPPS, HIPS and PP are independent theoretical cost estimates, each calculated on the feedstock system of the respective currency with no exchange-rate conversion. Theoretical costs are for directional observation only and do not represent actual traded prices or official quotations.
| Grade | Price direction | Supply situation | Watch over the next 1-3 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABS | Steady to firm | Regional supply has tightened somewhat | Some grades hold firm on controlled volumes; watch whether producers cut prices further and whether low-priced cargo returns |
| GPPS | Steady to soft | Supply normal | Largest cost decline; watch whether the RMB 10,000 threshold holds, and the fall may be faster than for other grades |
| HIPS | Steady to slightly weak | Supply steady, grades diverging | Butadiene floors the market but styrene drags; low-end grades to catch down and high-end softening; watch the next round of price adjustments |
| PP | Steady to slightly weak | Some plants under maintenance, cargo not ample | Futures broke down while spot resists; watch futures support and the restart pace of plants under maintenance |
| PE | Steady | Supply normal, steady arrivals | Lower crude brings costs down, but demand is in the off season; watch import arrivals and inventory changes |
| Transparent ABS | Steady | Specialised grades concentrated | Diverging from general-purpose ABS; arrivals of some grades are slow, so confirm available volumes before ordering |
Note: 'Price direction' is a directional view for the next one to three days and does not represent a specific price; 'Supply situation' reflects deliverable cargo and lead times.
· Shipping-lane risk has eased at the margin but is not resolved: eastbound tanker transits from the Middle East have recovered, yet commercial vessels are still rerouting and undergoing inspections, so schedule uncertainty has not fully cleared.
· Freight and war-risk insurance remain high: freight on Middle East to Asia routes has not fallen in step with crude, insurance on high-risk legs is still several times the norm, and part of that cost has become embedded in landed cost.
· Landed cost has decoupled from crude: most imported cargo was priced against earlier high crude, so the pass-through from lower crude to resin landed prices lags and a parallel cut in the near term is difficult.
· Regional supply is structurally tight: some plants in South China are under maintenance and arrivals of certain general-purpose and transparent grades are slow, so deliverable volumes need to be confirmed batch by batch.
· The logistics window is tight: shipping schedules and port operations come under pressure in the year-end shipping peak, so container pickup and customs clearance should be scheduled in advance.
1. Buy in batches: with costs in a downtrend, order in line with production schedules and avoid locking in large volumes in a single session of sharp volatility.
2. Quotation validity: with monomers and crude more volatile, state a clear validity period when ordering and treat formal confirmation as final, reducing disputes over price re-estimation.
3. Actual lead times: arrivals of some grades are slow, so confirm deliverable volumes and actual sailing schedules before ordering and allow buffer time for arrival and customs clearance.
4. Restocking pace: replenish mainly for immediate needs and keep safety stock at a normal-to-low level, then reassess bulk restocking once costs stabilise.
5. Grade differences: watch deliverable volumes for ABS and transparent grades, room for price concessions in GPPS and HIPS, and futures plus import arrivals for PP and PE.
| Market may firm | Market may weaken further |
|---|---|
| • If crude stops falling and regains the key range, lifting naphtha and styrene together, cost support could turn real again • If styrene ex-works prices steady and port inventories turn from building to drawing, the catch-down pressure on PS and ABS would ease markedly • If downstream restocking concentrates on year-end home appliance and packaging orders and is confirmed by a pick-up in traded volumes, the spot price centre could stabilise | • If crude breaks further below the key range and drags naphtha and styrene lower in step, cost support could weaken further • If idled styrene plants restart en masse and port inventories build for a second consecutive week, monomers and resins could see catch-down declines • If ABS loses its controlled-volume support for firm pricing and low-priced cargo flows back in, the price centre could shift down quickly |
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Disclaimer: This material is provided for market information reference only and does not constitute a quotation, an offer to buy or sell, or any commitment on price, volume, quality or shipping schedule. Actual transaction terms are subject to formal confirmation.
